Jeevo

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  Jeevo » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:49 pm

MexicanHulk wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 5:54 am:The NFL is very different from back then & now. For a number of reasons. & that’s why the value has changed drastically for positions.

A truly elite #1 back is still a very valuable guy to have on a team. The value has changed for backs as a group.

signal

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  signal » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:55 pm

I think the Raiders will do one of the following three things at 7 depending upon how the picks fall before them:

A) Draft a QB.
B) Draft a CB.
C) Trade down and get more draft capital to address the D.

I guess there is a possibility of trading up for a QB, but don't think it a probability. I think if they trade the pick it will be to trade down to gain another PREMIUM pick or two.

I do suspect them to trade up several times later in the draft.

P.S. I will be shocked if they use the pick to get a right tackle or running back. Just does not make sense to me to use that PREMIUM pick on either position given where the team is right now.

Attyla

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  Attyla » Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:56 pm

Jeevo wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:49 pm:A truly elite #1 back is still a very valuable guy to have on a team. The value has changed for backs as a group.

the shelf life of a RB affects the value. It is a combination of years and injury potential that makes teams shy away from paying elite backs elite money. Henry who I consider the best in the game overall is already showing signs of decay. It is why the Titans are exploring trading him. It is why we tagged Jacobs rather than pay him. Even Jacobs who had a stellar year last year could drop off the cliff in a very short time and he is still young. His body of work is pretty outstanding and he really did not do a lot in college before his last season. But the risks dictated we tag him.

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  Jeevo » Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:52 pm

Attyla wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:56 pm:the shelf life of a RB affects the value. It is a combination of years and injury potential that makes teams shy away from paying elite backs elite money. Henry who I consider the best in the game overall is already showing signs of decay. It is why the Titans are exploring trading him. It is why we tagged Jacobs rather than pay him. Even Jacobs who had a stellar year last year could drop off the cliff in a very short time and he is still young. His body of work is pretty outstanding and he really did not do a lot in college before his last season. But the risks dictated we tag him.

I get all that, and I do realize what has happened with respect to rbs over the years, haven't been living off grid in a cave. Having said that, the guys considered to be locks are still highly valued and teams will, and do, spend high picks on them, a la Zeke, Saquon, etc.. Robinson is going to go high.

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  Attyla » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:10 pm

Jeevo wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 2:52 pm:I get all that, and I do realize what has happened with respect to rbs over the years, haven't been living off grid in a cave. Having said that, the guys considered to be locks are still highly valued and teams will, and do, spend high picks on them, a la Zeke, Saquon, etc.. Robinson is going to go high.

unlike some, I never suggested you are living under a rock. I merely pointed out that while, as you said, the elite RBs will go high (never disputed that) that the shelf life to me is why the value is really impacting the value drafting of RBs. I do think also that the rookie cap plays into teams seeking cheaper draft options at the position. But where you can potentially get 12 or so years from a corner or a lineman, you probably get 3 to 5 for a RB before you see the decline. That means for a highly drafted RB you do not even get to the second contract. We are seeing it now with Jacobs.

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  Jeevo » Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:46 pm

Attyla wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 4:10 pm:unlike some, I never suggested you are living under a rock. I merely pointed out that while, as you said, the elite RBs will go high (never disputed that) that the shelf life to me is why the value is really impacting the value drafting of RBs. I do think also that the rookie cap plays into teams seeking cheaper draft options at the position. But where you can potentially get 12 or so years from a corner or a lineman, you probably get 3 to 5 for a RB before you see the decline. That means for a highly drafted RB you do not even get to the second contract. We are seeing it now with Jacobs.

Agree on all that too as I sit in my impenetrable underground lair. Anyway we'll see if anyone values Robinson highly.

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  Attyla » Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:36 am

GoodTimeCharlie wrote Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:39 pm:I bet it’s that same train of thought that has Baltimore putting a cap on the guarantees in a contract with Lamar. As exciting as it is to see a quarterback take off downfield and make the D look foolish, that dynamic running ability is bringing injury and shortening careers.

The running QBs are extremely risky to draft. Unless they learn how to play in the pocket and learn the proper mechanics of passing (and get the accuracy into the mid 60's) they do not last. It is why Richardson is such a huge risk to draft. It is a nice fantasy to think he will improve his accuracy at the next level, but you cannot draft him assuming you can improve that aspect of his game. You draft him for what he is now, a guy with freakish athletic skills who is going to be a 50% passer. He will never be a Mahomes guy who can play in the pocket accurately and use his wheels when needed. He will be the guy who uses his wheels as his first option, like Lamar. It is how he has gotten to the pros and it is very hard to alter that instinct once a player has established that part of his game.

That being said, yea, I am not a Run first option QB, way too risky and most do not last long at the next level.