signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:36 am
Yes, I do find it sort of odd, that people suggest that solving the problem is as simple as finding an elite QB. Every team that does not have one is looking for one. They are few and far between and when drafting every year, teams mistakenly think they have found their guy.16 to 88 wrote Sun Mar 03, 2024 7:24 pm:Yeah, not a fan of trading the farm away hoping he is the guy. Shanacan't who knows a thing or two about a QB was convinced Trey Lance was there future QB.
Opoponax50 » Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:52 am
There is now and it's pretty simple: Have the best QB and a great play-caller.signal wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:36 am:There is no simple formula for winning in the NFL.
signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:20 am
And I would argue that you are doing what many do and that is giving the QB more credit than he deserves.Opoponax50 wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:52 am:There is now and it's pretty simple: Have the best QB and a great play-caller.
I blame the NFL rule changes, but those aren't going to change.
Anyway, we do need to keep searching for the best QB, but the odds of finding someone who can match Mahomes' performance in both the regular and postseason are not quite zero, but very close to it.
Keep adding to the D, build the O-line, try to keep the coaching staff in place, and we can get to the postseason without a great QB and even win a game or two there. Maybe some other team has a great game and beats KC, or maybe we do. Probably not, but I'd rather have that than trying to miracle our way to the next HOF QB while giving up a much more realistic chance of fielding a good overall team.
This is the only realistic way to build a winner due to the rule changes that so favor the offense. It's made the path to a Super Bowl a matter of luck----finding that needle in the haystack---except you may not even have the opportunity to look for that needle if your draft position isn't where it needs to be.
Attyla » Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:30 am
since our last super bowl appearance, the list of guys who got to the dance, not just the winners but both starting QB's, is kind of startling. Other than Eli and Foles, each winner is a future HOF QB with Wilson on the bubble (Flacco beating Kaepernick is the outlier.) And most the losers are either mediocre to decent QBs or they are future HOFers who were beaten by a future HOFers or were beaten by Eli (Foles being the outlier.) Simply put, getting that guy is your path to winning it all. And the trick, and a very tough one, is to find that guy.Opoponax50 wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:52 am:There is now and it's pretty simple: Have the best QB and a great play-caller.
I blame the NFL rule changes, but those aren't going to change.
Anyway, we do need to keep searching for the best QB, but the odds of finding someone who can match Mahomes' performance in both the regular and postseason are not quite zero, but very close to it.
Keep adding to the D, build the O-line, try to keep the coaching staff in place, and we can get to the postseason without a great QB and even win a game or two there. Maybe some other team has a great game and beats KC, or maybe we do. Probably not, but I'd rather have that than trying to miracle our way to the next HOF QB while giving up a much more realistic chance of fielding a good overall team.
This is the only realistic way to build a winner due to the rule changes that so favor the offense. It's made the path to a Super Bowl a matter of luck----finding that needle in the haystack---except you may not even have the opportunity to look for that needle if your draft position isn't where it needs to be.
signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:39 am
You think any of the top three teams are going to want to move down in this draft? Really?Attyla wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:30 am:since our last super bowl appearance, the list of guys who got to the dance, not just the winners but both starting QB's, is kind of startling. Other than Eli and Foles, each winner is a future HOF QB with Wilson on the bubble (Flacco beating Kaepernick is the outlier.) And most the losers are either mediocre to decent QBs or they are future HOFers who were beaten by a future HOFers or were beaten by Eli (Foles being the outlier.) Simply put, getting that guy is your path to winning it all. And the trick, and a very tough one, is to find that guy.
Is that an over simplification? You bet it is, but you get there on the arm of your QB unless you have a stifling defense. How many stifling defenses are out there vs HOF QBs? I wanted Burrow very much and everyone knew Cinci was not giving up their shot at the golden goose. Those guys are out there, you just have to push your chips in to take your shot. I am not sure if TT sees one he is willing to do that for, but if he does and he wants him enough to go for it, I am on board. We have worked with also ran's for too long.
Attyla » Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:10 am
Pierce himself said everyone has a pricesignal wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:39 am:You think any of the top three teams are going to want to move down in this draft? Really?
Why would it be ridiculous if they have their guy in their sights.And if they don't want to move what exactly do you think it would cost to get them to move down. It would take a ridiculous amount of draft capital that makes saying no impossible. So, you want the Raiders to make this ridiculous offer that would make any draft chart useless?
small chance but that is why you overdraft QBs, to have that exact chanceWhat for a chance at possibly getting a HOF QB?
I actually said the tough part is being right about the guy you pick, so I acknowledged the draft is a the tough part. And I never argued to to trade anything. I said you have to push in your chips if you see your guy. Both Pierce and TT said the same thing. I said the GM will have my support if he elects to go for one of the top guys.You neglect to acknowledge that the draft is crapshoot at best and your approach seems to imply that it is not. The QB with by far the most rings was taken in the 6th round. A QB playing in the past Super Bowl was picked in the 7th round. Mahommes was the 10th pick in the draft. The QB (Jackson) that arguably had the best year in 2023 was drafted 32nd in the draft. But you argue the only way to get your guy is to trade a boatload of draft capital to move up into the top three?
never said otherwise.One merely has to take a glance at the last 20 drafts to see that there are many swings and misses at QBs at the top of the draft. Some busts, some average, some good and very few one would call elite.
BoKnows81 » Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:40 am
First, why is that odd? And second, you contradict your argument by saying "every team that does not have one is looking for one". Why do you think that is? Bc that really is the simple formula for winning. And again with the crapshoot argument, another contradiction. If it's such a crapshoot then why are you holding picks so tightly? I will tell you again, you just aren't getting it. You need a great to elite QB to win in TODAY'S game which is built for offense. Just look at the last two dynasty teams of the 2000s. It's worth the gamble and previous drafts mean nothing.signal wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:36 am:Yes, I do find it sort of odd, that people suggest that solving the problem is as simple as finding an elite QB. Every team that does not have one is looking for one. They are few and far between and when drafting every year, teams mistakenly think they have found their guy.
I do think the Raiders have neglected the position in the past in the draft. The Raiders should have been taking far more swings at the position than they have in the past 20 years. That said, NFL is very much a team sport and if you are not improving the entire team yearly, you are moving backward.
I would argue that the Chiefs' success in 2023 had as much to do with their defense as it had to do with their offense. QBs famously get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses. In 2023, the Chiefs were ranked second in the league in both yards given up and points given up. The Chiefs were 15th in points scored, a bit better than average on offense. So, possibly, one could argue that their success was due more to their defense than their offense, though the talking heads and the narrative is all about their offense.
The Chargers have a pretty good QB in Herbert, but have really done nothing of note since he has been on the team. They have tried throwing money at it and that has not worked. The formula for winning in a meaningful way is a tad more complex than simply finding an elite QB. And to throw a boatload of picks to get a chance at getting one might not solve anything either way.
There is no simple formula for winning in the NFL. Goodness knows if it were as easy as acquiring the first pick in a draft to get that QB, then damn, that pick would be worth a hell of lot more than it is. Simple fact is, the draft remains a crapshoot and the guy with the most rings was drafted in the 6th round.
Attyla » Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:56 am
yep, and we are just discussing stuff. Once we know what they do in FA we will get a better picture of what the possibilities are in the draft. Then we have around a month to discuss that, often heated discussions. But come that Thursday night, we are just spectators. It's not like our discussions influence anyone inside the walls. Whatever they decide, I first off have to accept, and second off will support as I always do until the bottom falls out or the player measures up. That is the fan in me. I am not going to get bent out of shape over these discussions nor am I going to take it personal. I am also not going to get upset if I personally do not like the picks. I try to watch some film on guys so I can discuss options but I am not watching hours of film or participating in the "draft advisory board" which are just opinions of guys who have way more time on their hands than I do. I have been watching QB film mostly because I really think it may be our year to pull the trigger. I like several of the guys toward the top of the draft but I am down with whatever they do. I am just wanting us to win. I do not have the secret sauce to a certain path to get that, so I will watch and express my opinions.BoKnows81 wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:40 am:First, why is that odd? And second, you contradict your argument by saying "every team that does not have one is looking for one". Why do you think that is? Bc that really is the simple formula for winning. And again with the crapshoot argument, another contradiction. If it's such a crapshoot then why are you holding picks so tightly? I will tell you again, you just aren't getting it. You need a great to elite QB to win in TODAY'S game which is built for offense. Just look at the last two dynasty teams of the 2000s. It's worth the gamble and previous drafts mean nothing.
signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 9:30 am
Yes, let's look at the last two dynasties. The biggest dynasty was led by a 6th round QB. The other led by the 10th pick in the draft. The other team in the SB this year had a 7th round QB. But, your argument seems to be that the only way to find that QB is to trade away a boat load of picks to move up in the top 3. Lamar Jackson won the MVP but was the 32nd pick. Is it that no one was drafting QBs? Nope, a lot of QBs were drafted in the top 5 and many of them did not win a Super Bowl. But I guess this year is different and the three teams at the top of this draft will win all of the next 15 Super Bowls. Yep, let's go all in because if we don't we are fucked.BoKnows81 wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 8:40 am:First, why is that odd? And second, you contradict your argument by saying "every team that does not have one is looking for one". Why do you think that is? Bc that really is the simple formula for winning. And again with the crapshoot argument, another contradiction. If it's such a crapshoot then why are you holding picks so tightly? I will tell you again, you just aren't getting it. You need a great to elite QB to win in TODAY'S game which is built for offense. Just look at the last two dynasty teams of the 2000s. It's worth the gamble and previous drafts mean nothing.
BoKnows81 » Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:17 am
But having an elite QB is absolutely the beginning and end. Everything else that matters is all in between having that elite guy. I have never stated that the only way to find an elite QB is to move into the top 3. I said I would do whatever is necessary to take a shot on finding an elite QB. If TT and AP think that's taking Penix or whoever at 13, then fine. All I said is that I personally believe that the only 3 QBs that ave ELITE potential in this draft are the guys in the top 3. If you want to throw McCarthy in that mix, fine, but the way things are trending, we'd have to trade up for him as well. But do not say it is "odd" for fans to want to do whatever is necessary to find an elite QB. And maybe don't call the draft a crapshoot and at the same time be unwilling to give up multiple picks to get OUR guy, if that's what it would take.signal wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 9:30 am:Yes, let's look at the last two dynasties. The biggest dynasty was led by a 6th round QB. The other led by the 10th pick in the draft. The other team in the SB this year had a 7th round QB. But, your argument seems to be that the only way to find that QB is to trade away a boat load of picks to move up in the top 3. Lamar Jackson won the MVP but was the 32nd pick. Is it that no one was drafting QBs? Nope, a lot of QBs were drafted in the top 5 and many of them did not win a Super Bowl. But I guess this year is different and the three teams at the top of this draft will win all of the next 15 Super Bowls. Yep, let's go all in because if we don't we are fucked.
While I thought I was clear, I will state it again, I thought the Raiders made a huge mistake in the past 20 years by not taking more swings at QB. That is the reason we are here now, desperate to fill the position. And I am not stating that having a great to elite QB is not important in today's NFL, I am arguing that it is not beginning and end to what makes for a championship team and that the ONLY way we can get one is if we move up into the top three of this draft.
signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:45 am
Possibly we simply disagree or you have not understood what I said. I simply stated that getting a good to elite QB is not the ENTIRE recipe for building a championship team. If it was, then why have some very good to elite QBs not won Super Bowls? I thought I was stating the obvious. You need an above average defense and you need to be solid to dominant in the trenches. Why is suggesting this such a controversial statement to make?BoKnows81 wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:17 am:But having an elite QB is absolutely the beginning and end. Everything else that matters is all in between having that elite guy. I have never stated that the only way to find an elite QB is to move into the top 3. I said I would do whatever is necessary to take a shot on finding an elite QB. If TT and AP think that's taking Penix or whoever at 13, then fine. All I said is that I personally believe that the only 3 QBs that ave ELITE potential in this draft are the guys in the top 3. If you want to throw McCarthy in that mix, fine, but the way things are trending, we'd have to trade up for him as well. But do not say it is "odd" for fans to want to do whatever is necessary to find an elite QB. And maybe don't call the draft a crapshoot and at the same time be unwilling to give up multiple picks to get OUR guy, if that's what it would take.
chucker » Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:53 am
Has a team without a franchise QB on the roster ever traded out of the top 3 to a team that takes a QB when that drafted QB turned out to be successful? I think the Wentz draft pick came from the Browns? I'd call him a successful pick because of his hot start, even if he flamed out early.signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:32 am
The pisser is that now, in at least one mock, they have JJ joining the top 3 and have him going 4th overall.chucker wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:53 am:Has a team without a franchise QB on the roster ever traded out of the top 3 to a team that takes a QB when that drafted QB turned out to be successful? I think the Wentz draft pick came from the Browns? I'd call him a successful pick because of his hot start, even if he flamed out early.
If a team is willing to trade out, they likely see some issues with the available QBs I guess.
chucker » Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:46 am
It's silly season for mock drafts. This is the time when mock drafters come out with version 3.0 or whatever and just go outside the box for clicks and because repeating the same first 6 picks again is boring. Will Levis rumors in the top 2 were a hot topic at one point.signal wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:32 am:The pisser is that now, in at least one mock, they have JJ joining the top 3 and have him going 4th overall.
Arizona is not in the market for a QB so they might be willing to move down to acquire further draft capital. That appears to be a far more reasonable approach then trying to persuade a team that has no interest in trading down to move down. If TT thinks JJ is a much better prospect than the others in the 2nd tier than I think that might be the move to make.
signal » Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:01 pm
We have similar takes. I like Penix also but his injury history does concern me a bit. But do like the tools he brings to the table.chucker wrote Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:46 am:It's silly season for mock drafts. This is the time when mock drafters come out with version 3.0 or whatever and just go outside the box for clicks and because repeating the same first 6 picks again is boring. Will Levis rumors in the top 2 were a hot topic at one point.
I'm not opposed to Penix either. Bo Nix kinda feels off to me, but that's based off of pretty limited information.
I might sign up for the QB School patreon for a month just to get his full game breakdowns of the top guys - but I'll wait until he has more of them done and just binge for a month.