- Congrats: 1 These Raider Fans gave DrDUne a high five:
- Raidernation1979
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DrDUne » Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:59 pm
I would be surprised if the Raiders finished in the worst 5-9 NFL teams, as depicted.Raidernation1979 wrote Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:43 pm:Funny they have us at 3rd in the division with chargers finishing above us. Also they have the saints at 3rd.
16 to 88 » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:32 pm
I can understand this.DrDUne wrote Tue Mar 26, 2024 3:26 pm:Seeing a few sportsbooks releasing early season win totals. Draft Kings currently has the Raiders o/u at 6.5, similar to last years preseason totals.
Yes, I understand the draft and free agency still play a part, but there are very rarely huge swings in these numbers.
https://twitter.com/thefantasypt/status ... 9ctUMJFY_Q
Sold My Soul » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:32 pm
Books haven't lasted this long because they were lucky. They have the best and brightest running the most up to date analytics that MIT can produce.DrDUne wrote Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:59 pm:I would be surprised if the Raiders finished in the worst 5-9 NFL teams, as depicted.
I used to get mad at these projections and then came to realize the books were within a game or so on almost every Raiders prognostication by end of year. At some point, it’s just us. Need that to change.
16 to 88 » Tue Mar 26, 2024 5:46 pm
Oh, and as for the 40 ninnies, I don't see it.GUYDON » Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:11 pm
On an LA radio station this afternoon, there were 3 hosts all saying the Raiders will "regress big time".Raidernation1979 » Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:16 pm
Agree and I’m not upset about the .500ish prediction. Best place to ride. I just think as usual they are giving the chargers to much creditDrDUne wrote Tue Mar 26, 2024 4:59 pm:I would be surprised if the Raiders finished in the worst 5-9 NFL teams, as depicted.
I used to get mad at these projections and then came to realize the books were within a game or so on almost every Raiders prognostication by end of year. At some point, it’s just us. Need that to change.
signal » Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:59 am
Oh my goodness who gives a fuck in regards to a line that someone draws in the sand. I'm sorry but these are simply predictions about a future no one can predict.Attyla » Wed Mar 27, 2024 5:56 am
Early to get uptight over wins predictions, we still have the draft, June 1st cuts and of course pre season and the ever possibilities of injuries to factor in. I am not concerned about some talking head's prediction, but Vegas? Yea, they have handicappers who know their shit, they use a lot of stats and now are using AI to generate betting odds. Those guys are dealing with millions of dollars so getting it right is huge business. And they are the best at what they do. Never listen to a talking head but Vegas is in the business of getting it right. when they talk, I listen and listen hard.chucker » Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:52 am
Betting lines are meant to match betting patterns so that the book can't lose, with equal betting on both sides. Most of the world looks at the profile of the QB and head coach and the "normal" record for that team and that's their assessment of a team. To most of the world that should add up to 6.5 wins for the Raiders because we don't have a proven starting QB or a proven HC or a proven success rate. YMMV..... mine does. I'd take the over if I were betting on a 6.5 number. I'd take the under if it were at 10 wins. I haven't placed a bet though, and if I do it will be an amount that I don't give a shit about losing.signal » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:18 am
I love that AP is all about building a bully: a team that no one will want to play.heavyD » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:32 am
Should anyone be surprised that the gambling masses aren’t overly excited about the winning chances of an Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew quarterbacked team? I would take the over for sure but the AFC North is a tough draw and you can make a case that the Raiders could lose all four of those games.chucker wrote Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:52 am:Betting lines are meant to match betting patterns so that the book can't lose, with equal betting on both sides. Most of the world looks at the profile of the QB and head coach and the "normal" record for that team and that's their assessment of a team. To most of the world that should add up to 6.5 wins for the Raiders because we don't have a proven starting QB or a proven HC or a proven success rate. YMMV..... mine does. I'd take the over if I were betting on a 6.5 number. I'd take the under if it were at 10 wins. I haven't placed a bet though, and if I do it will be an amount that I don't give a shit about losing.
16 to 88 » Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:24 pm
"So the book can't lose".chucker wrote Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:52 am:Betting lines are meant to match betting patterns so that the book can't lose, with equal betting on both sides. Most of the world looks at the profile of the QB and head coach and the "normal" record for that team and that's their assessment of a team. To most of the world that should add up to 6.5 wins for the Raiders because we don't have a proven starting QB or a proven HC or a proven success rate. YMMV..... mine does. I'd take the over if I were betting on a 6.5 number. I'd take the under if it were at 10 wins. I haven't placed a bet though, and if I do it will be an amount that I don't give a shit about losing.
Dr Death » Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:20 pm
I'm not sure why anyone would be offended/upset about where Vegas puts the Raiders when the Raiders pretty much prove them right every year.crowbar » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:33 pm
Raiders lost me after the Vikings game.GUYDON wrote Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:11 pm:On an LA radio station this afternoon, there were 3 hosts all saying the Raiders will "regress big time".
They all acted like we were a 3 win team. In the past I would get it, but it feels like this could be one of the top defenses in the NFL and there is a ton of fire power on offense. Hell even with Minchew I would say we could win 8 or 9 games.
When Vegas sets the line at 6.5, it sure feels like they know something I dont.
I feel like this will be a team that plays hard every week.
AP won 5 of 9 with a poor rook qb and complete turmoil, and he is only going to win 1.5 more with 7 more games, a full offseason and a ton of returning players. Man I just dont see us losing 11 games.
If we do, I really think Im done. There has to be something else going on. I just cant waste anymore of my time on this team if they are going to lose double digit games at this point.
It seems the Vegas line is rarely wrong, so we will see.