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The Condor » Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:00 am
For sure, but if there is anything guaranteed to maximise the chance of a PREMIUM pick not working out, it's taking a lesser player over a much better prospect at another position, because of desperate need.SkullCrusher wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:49 am:Understood.
The counter is if you need a QB you need a QB and while the %'s aren't high you could still land a good one and as we know whoever you pick non-QB they don't have anywhere close to a 100% success rate either. Probably all positions (less PK/P) are under 50%.
The Condor » Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:11 am
Indeed.signal wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:00 am:I could be wrong, but I did read an article that did a study and the OL had the greatest rate of success in the first round and that the WR position had the highest bust rate in round one. But it has been some time since reading the article, so not entirely sure of that.
That said, don't think anyone is stating flat out don't go QB in the first round. If TT loves a QB who drops to #13 then yes, swing away. I think most are a tad reluctant to trade a boatload of PREMIUM picks to get one. There's the rub. To swing and miss on one first round pick is one thing but to swing and miss and throw away two or three years of PREMIUM picks is a completely different thing.
Dark Horse » Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:55 am
It's accurate because their respective "one good years" are more similar than the two you tried to insert to push your narrative. It's also accurate because neither pick will be considered a reach. I know you tried to ignore that part but I put it right back in your face.Hellbound wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 7:11 am:Is he a more accurate comp since he fits your narrative? Ok since you want to make up a rule as you go and say 40 tds, I'll make one up and say keep it at the same school. JaMarcus Russel
Idk why you want to set the benchmark of 40 tds. It's a number that's been achieved quite a few times. Mac Jones along with a bunch of other has beens even did it
heavyD » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:04 am
Fun little fact from the Athletic today.Just shows how much of a crapshoot drafting can be but still pretty crazy that the better QB’s more than not have been the ones not picked first.Across the past 13 NFL drafts, nearly 70 percent of years saw the best QB drafted after the first QB was taken.
SkullCrusher » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:10 am
SkullCrusher wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:49 am:Understood.
The counter is if you need a QB you need a QB and while the %'s aren't high you could still land a good one and as we know whoever you pick non-QB they don't have anywhere close to a 100% success rate either. Probably all positions (less PK/P) are under 50%.
Yeah I think we all get it. That last part is why only using league tendencies matter as every time we redo our GM/HC it doesn't matter what past Raider GM/HC combo's did, they aren't related.The Condor wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:00 am:For sure, but if there is anything guaranteed to maximise the chance of a PREMIUM pick not working out, it's taking a lesser player over a much better prospect at another position, because of desperate need.
I mean, we've been trying that "strategy" for decades..
SkullCrusher » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:12 am
SkullCrusher wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 8:49 am:Understood.
The counter is if you need a QB you need a QB and while the %'s aren't high you could still land a good one and as we know whoever you pick non-QB they don't have anywhere close to a 100% success rate either. Probably all positions (less PK/P) are under 50%.
Agreed and wouldn't be surprised if the OL has the best success rate. The only person I'd give the farm up for is Caleb and I'd give up a shit ton, but that won't be an option. The rest I'd be careful with. I'm figuring an OT will be our pick.signal wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:00 am:I could be wrong, but I did read an article that did a study and the OL had the greatest rate of success in the first round and that the WR position had the highest bust rate in round one. But it has been some time since reading the article, so not entirely sure of that.
That said, don't think anyone is stating flat out don't go QB in the first round. If TT loves a QB who drops to #13 then yes, swing away. I think most are a tad reluctant to trade a boatload of PREMIUM picks to get one. There's the rub. To swing and miss on one first round pick is one thing but to swing and miss and throw away two or three years of PREMIUM picks is a completely different thing.
chucker » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:15 am
Baldy said today he loves Penix as the answer for the Raiders - he's no QB guru, but the guy lives for football and he has Penix as his #2 QB in the draft behind Williams. I'd be thrilled if we got Penix without spending a ton of future draft resources.Hellbound » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:21 am
Yeah, you sure did tell me!Dark Horse wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 9:55 am:It's accurate because their respective "one good years" are more similar than the two you tried to insert to push your narrative. It's also accurate because neither pick will be considered a reach. I know you tried to ignore that part but I put it right back in your face.
GUYDON » Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:28 am
Im still of the opinion we need a QB and we need them now. Whether it be Daniels (I wish), Penix (fine with it), or someone else, we have to start investing in the spot. We may find the guy right away we may not.DanKD » Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:19 pm
Penix is the guy I like also. To me he looks comparable in risk and reward vs the guys above him.chucker wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:15 am:Baldy said today he loves Penix as the answer for the Raiders - he's no QB guru, but the guy lives for football and he has Penix as his #2 QB in the draft behind Williams. I'd be thrilled if we got Penix without spending a ton of future draft resources.
https://twitter.com/MoeMoton/status/1780236285979787274
heavyD » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:11 pm
That and the fact the Raiders wouldn’t have to trade a king’s ransom of picks to get him. It seems like the failure rate is even higher when teams trade up to pick a QB as you are giving up a lot of assets for a player that’s still a roll of the dice from being a bust.DanKD wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:19 pm:Penix is the guy I like also. To me he looks comparable in risk and reward vs the guys above him.
WolfRaider » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:15 pm
I would rather draft 3 1st round QBs in the next 3 years. Then use all 3 to trade up for one this draft.riseNraid09 » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:22 pm
The media seems to be pushing Penix to the Raiders at #13, claiming that the potential pick is gaining steam. Even if Penix is their guy, I feel like taking him at #13 is too much of a reach considering where he's projected to land. If they truly want Penix, I feel like the right move would be either, trading back in the first to grab him while gaining an extra pick or so in the process, or... trade back into the back half of the first to grab him. Telesco, traditionally, seems to stay put so, I wonder what the thought process is there. only time will tell. personally, Im pushing for an OT at #13. the trenches are everything.heavyD wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:11 pm:That and the fact the Raiders wouldn’t have to trade a king’s ransom of picks to get him. It seems like the failure rate is even higher when teams trade up to pick a QB as you are giving up a lot of assets for a player that’s still a roll of the dice from being a bust.
Sir Raider Duck, OMS » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:28 pm
It comes down to whether TT, Pierce and Getsy think Penix is The Guy. If he is, it's better to take him a little early than get cute, think "We can trade down and get him in the 20s," then have somebody snag him right before us.riseNraid09 wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:22 pm:The media seems to be pushing Penix to the Raiders at #13, claiming that the potential pick is gaining steam. Even if Penix is their guy, I feel like taking him at #13 is too much of a reach considering where he's projected to land. If they truly want Penix, I feel like the right move would be either, trading back in the first to grab him while gaining an extra pick or so in the process, or... trade back into the back half of the first to grab him. Telesco, traditionally, seems to stay put so, I wonder what the thought process is there. only time will tell. personally, Im pushing for an OT at #13. the trenches are everything.
Attyla » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:44 pm
Unlike a lot of guys around here, I do not know who is going to emerge as a legit star. I know Telesco pulled the trigger on Herbert, so at least he has hit on one guy. That to me says a bit, since I thought at the time Herbert came off the board a bit too early. All the others drafting QBs in the top of the 1st are unknowns so who knows who is going to be the draft genius. Would be great if Telesco pulled off another winner though.Sir Raider Duck, OMS wrote Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:28 pm:It comes down to whether TT, Pierce and Getsy think Penix is The Guy. If he is, it's better to take him a little early than get cute, think "We can trade down and get him in the 20s," then have somebody snag him right before us.
And while I agree we need OL help, good RTs and/or interior linemen can be found in Round 2.